Is the Desktop Computer Going Away?

Prologue for this post: "Missing Work"

Do you hate sitting behind a desk? (Or if you're unemployed, do you hate NOT sitting behind a desk?) The recession has spurred a number of innovations and needs in the digital realm, and among these is the need to be more versatile and mobile and to buy computers that are lightweight and inexpensive. Laptop sales grew by 23% in December, to 1.9 million units, and netbooks rose in volume to 12% by year's end. This post isn't really about the netbook craze, but these figures are a powerful illustration of a social tend. In the media, the mantra is that people have flocked to social networks to feel more "connected," and these lightweight computers (and mobile phones) are perfectly suited for this and other web-oriented tasks. It seems clear that this is a backlash to changes in careers and urban landscapes that lead to an increasing disconnect from other people. So then, this begs the question: if people prefer to work and socialize on laptops and cell phones, what will happen to the desktop PC? Will it eventually just go away completely?

In 2006, Ask Slashdot posed this very question (can't find the article--if someone wants to put it in the comments, that'd be great!), and the answers were interesting. There were lots of speculations about how the traditional desktop would be relegated to menial labor as a home automation server, or a Home Theater PC. While either of these options is possible and people are occasionally doing these things, I think it's unlikely to catch on for mainstream consumers. Each computer in the home requires an operating system, periodic maintenance, updates or upgrades, and configuring for a specific task. Heaven forbid your home automation system should get a virus while you're away on vacation! In many of these cases, the desktop computer is overkill for these tasks, too time consuming to set up, and it's a hassle if something goes wrong.

I used to believe that in the very near future (5-10 years), our homes would have large, flat screen monitors with built-in computers--sort of like a giant iMac that hangs from the wall. Except I thought it would come from Gateway, because in the late 90's they were marketing desktops and monitors that were specialized for media delivery (these included remote mouse and keyboard, so you could surf the web from your couch). What will the form factor be for 21st century computers? I've added a poll to let you pick the from some scenarios, and please feel free to add any ideas in the comments section.

7 Things Microsoft Fixed in Windows 7

Is Windows 7 the operating system of the future? Probably not. But it is the operating system for the immediate future, so I am going to break from my normal editorial posts and talk a little bit about Windows 7 because I've had a chance to install it and play around with it, and I want to share some highlights.

It's not so much new features that interest me when I work with operating systems--those of you who know me are probably all too familiar with my tendency to become irate with the little annoying things Windows computers do that just piss me off. There's a website dedicated to this, called annoyances.org, full of advice for fixing these hundreds of little things that just make you want to put your fist through the display. I've referenced this website many times in the past, to retain personal sanity.

Below, I've compiled a list of 7 things from Windows XP that pissed me off, and how Microsoft fixed them in Windows 7. This list ist not intended to be exhaustive--in fact, they are all related to the first things you see when you start up.

Oh incidentally, I didn't bother with Vista, and I hope you didn't either. So if you were even THINKING about saying "they fixed that in Vista," you probably bought Windows ME when it came out, too. And liked it. Shame on you!

Anyway, without further ado, here's my list of 7 Things Microsoft Fixed in Windows 7:

1) Installation was a snap. I purchased a second drive because I didn't want to overwrite a perfectly good working copy of Windows XP. The installer recognized my existing XP installation and my new drive, and I had the option to format and install to the new drive. Only one screen to fill out, then I could go snack on doughnuts during the rest of the installation. The system also now recognizes that I have two operating systems installed, and it asks me which one I prefer to boot on startup. Easy.

2) They fixed the Start menu. Leo Laporte described the old Windows XP version as "Fisher Price." Apparently these computation devices have been around for a while, and we're ready for something more sophisticated. The new popup menu is considerably less cluttered, and Windows 7's little round bubble with the windows logo (bottom left in this screen capture) is more than adequate. That brings me to #3.

3) Partial screen capture, which made this blog post possible. MacOS has had this forever. It's about time Windows caught up here. Unfortunately the "Snipping Tool" dialogue disappears before you can take a capture, so I haven't shown a picture. You can see it running in the new task bar, however (bottom right) which brings me to #4.



4) When I browse the web I typically have multiple windows of Firefox running simultaneously, and likely other applications as well. Windows XP made it very difficult to identify, for example, a specific Firefox window. Windows 7 offers thumbnail previews for open application windows, which is almost as cool as Apple's Expose'. Hovering over these thumbnails will quickly display the whole window, which is very useful for identifying exactly what window you want to jump to.

5) The Task Tray. This was actually my least favorite feature in Windows XP. No, that's too kind. It's arguably the worst thing to ever happen to an operating system. Ever. By now, you should have figured out that it's basically a dumping ground for one nag window after another. Windows security balloons, Windows update messages, Java updates (sometimes two at a time!), wireless connection warnings, anti-virus software, media player launchers, instant message programs, USB device notifications--it's like you're playing some twisted version of whack-a-mole in the bottom right corner of your screen. Hint for you newbies who might be reading: if your computer is running like molasses, this is the first place you should look when taking out the garbage. Windows 7 has finally put a cork in it, and not a moment too soon. The endless stream of nag has been consolidated to a little white flag that you can check to identify issues that may need attention.

6) Action Center. That little white flag is a useful tool for navigating hardware and software issues. In general, the operating system is more verbose when describing potential issues with hardware or drivers. I was caught by surprise when it correctly identified exactly where I could download the updated driver for a power-saving feature on my motherboard (AMD's Cool 'n' Quiet function, for those burning with curiosity). This is much more useful information than "Your computer might be at risk."

7) Silence is golden. Sometimes you just want to see what's on your desktop--maybe you want to make sure a file saved correctly, or maybe you just want to stare at your wallpaper. Windows XP used to have a button to display the desktop but it always seemed to keep vanishing. Now there's a little blank space that you can click on to make your windows transparent and see that beautiful background.

Age in the Digital Age

How often have you heard the phrase, "When I was your age..." followed by some outrageous anecdote of hardship that you know cannot possibly be true? (Six miles through snow, uphill both ways!) Even as our elders continue trying to convince us that they had it so much rougher when they were growing up, it's getting easier to make the claim that our hardships are at least as difficult as those of the previous generation--I don't mean to diminish the real challenges that the Baby Boomers faced, such as the looming threats of nuclear holocaust during the cold war, but as cultures in the digital age quicken their pace to keep up with Moore's Law (or not, as is the case in many 3rd world countries), we're entering an era of increased understanding of our global responsibility to address issues like climate change and the coming energy crisis. Apart from Swine Flu and an American economy to rival that of the Great Depression, we are certainly faced with big problems of our own, and we're going to need bigger solutions. The global mantra currently seems to be "if we only had enough smart people--let's make babies, and hopefully some of them will turn out to be like Newton or Einstein." It's as if they truly believe that crossing a population threshold will suddenly trigger a new renaissance. Of course, we know better.

I recently attended a lecture and hosted interview (available here) by Dr. Michael Merzenich, who argues that the true limiting factor is a lack of proper training at a young age. His research in brain plasticity builds a strong case against the claims that a person's development is self determining, which is a now-obsolete tenet of psychology known as the "creative self." He further claims that almost without exception, we are not teaching in ways that are even close to optimally efficient, and it's a tragedy to assume that students who do poorly (socially or academically) at a young age will always do poorly. His research suggests that's simply false, and only a reflection of our own failings as parents, educators, and mentors. And the problems we're facing are, according to him, are not "getting any easier for the average young brain and person evolving in our society on any level... and now we have them competing with everybody in the world for God's sake.... You have to compete with the smartest people from everywhere. You can't just be the smartest person in your village, right?" It's clear when listening to him that he's frustrated with our systems of education.

There is good news, and this is where the technology (finally!) comes in: he says that, at any age, the negative constructs that we program our brains with can be unraveled, and the work he's pioneering has demonstrated this with software training sessions that could total as little as 30 hours (plus periodic maintenance). Interestingly, there are physical components that can similarly be overcome--for example, reduced peripheral vision in aging adults can be reversed, and people suffering from Alzheimer's or Parkinson's disease may even see significant improvements from these programs.

He's quick to point out that you should interpret his findings with a grain of salt because he holds financial interest in the companies that produce the training materials. He claims that if he has his way, the materials will be distributed at or near cost, and only the trainers (teachers) will be paid to administer the programs. They aren't free today, but I suppose they're not much more expensive than a 6-month gym membership, either. And if they really work, these kinds of "mind-workouts" may be just as beneficial. They certainly aren't without precedent, as programs like Brain-Age have been around for a while. If the science is really there and the trend takes off, it may not be long before parents talk less about "when I was your age..." and more about "when you're my age..."

What is the Answer to Life, The Universe, and Everything?

Prologues for this post: "Hello Computer" & "The Answer to Life, The Universe, and Everything"

If I walked up to you and said "light bulb," without any context, you'd probably lift one eyebrow at me. If I added some context, "first light bulb," you might reply "Thomas Edison." You might even tell me the year it was patented: 1878. Well, a new technology, demonstrated last week by Dr. Stephen Wolfram, does exactly the same thing, and according to an article in The Independent, it could "change the internet for ever." The system, described as a "computational knowledge engine," is able to interpret ordinary language for simple search queries, giving context to what most search engines would simply return as a series of web pages.

So what else can you do with this technology? MIT's Technology Review queried the system with "Microsoft Apple," and it returned graphics and tables comparing the two companies' stock values over time. Another simple task would be to do unit conversions. But some of these queries (e.g. pounds to kilograms) are already able to be interpreted by Google, and the Google's iPhone app can even interpret voice searches using the iPhone's microphone. So the critical question, really, is whether Wolfram's new engine is all that cutting-edge, and I would argue that it is.

The technology hasn't even been released as a beta yet, so I would hope that the upcoming releases will be able to demonstrate more interpretive power. In its current form, the software will stumble over very simple queries. But fans of Star Trek, and sci-fi in general, know where this is going. On the starship Enterprise, you can ask about the history of the Romulans or the distance to the nearest starbase and get precise answers. David Brin, writer of the Uplift Trilogy, envisions volumes of digital knowledge from many different galactic races, accessible from a computer terminal called "The Library." And I hope you watched the prologue videos. Eventually, development of Wolfram's engine (and others ilke it) will lead to a system that you can ask an ordinary question in plain language, and it will access the entire digital collective of human knowledge and report back with a reliable answer.

So what are the next steps? Wolfram's system is supposed to be publicly accessible this month, and I've heard through the grapevine of others developing similar engines. I would encourage you to play around with these as they come online, offering feedback to the developers so that they can continue to improve these systems. Today, we can ask who invented the first lightbulb. Someday, maybe we can ask "how can we end genocide?" Or even, "What's the ultimate question?"